Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HNK Rijeka win with a probability of 43.66%. A draw had a probability of 29.9% and a win for NK Istra 1961 had a probability of 26.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a HNK Rijeka win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.17%) and 1-2 (7.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.16%), while for a NK Istra 1961 win it was 1-0 (11.11%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.