Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HNK Rijeka win with a probability of 66%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Gorica had a probability of 11.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a HNK Rijeka win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.7%) and 2-1 (8.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.87%), while for a Gorica win it was 0-1 (5.55%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that HNK Rijeka would win this match.