Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gorica win with a probability of 39.2%. A win for NK Istra 1961 had a probability of 33.89% and a draw had a probability of 26.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gorica win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.79%) and 2-0 (6.76%). The likeliest NK Istra 1961 win was 0-1 (9.3%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood.