Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tondela win with a probability of 39.41%. A win for Maritimo had a probability of 31.93% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tondela win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.96%) and 2-0 (7.6%). The likeliest Maritimo win was 0-1 (11.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tondela would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Tondela | Draw | Maritimo |
| 39.41% | 28.66% | 31.93% |
| Both teams to score 45.35% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.97% | 61.02% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.99% | 81.01% |
| Tondela Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.83% | 30.17% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.68% | 66.32% |
| Maritimo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.94% | 35.06% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.2% | 71.8% |
| Score Analysis |
| Tondela | Draw | Maritimo |
| 1-0 @ 12.67% 2-1 @ 7.96% 2-0 @ 7.6% 3-1 @ 3.18% 3-0 @ 3.03% 3-2 @ 1.67% 4-1 @ 0.95% 4-0 @ 0.91% Other @ 1.44% Total : 39.41% | 1-1 @ 13.28% 0-0 @ 10.57% 2-2 @ 4.17% Other @ 0.63% Total : 28.65% | 0-1 @ 11.08% 1-2 @ 6.96% 0-2 @ 5.81% 1-3 @ 2.43% 0-3 @ 2.03% 2-3 @ 1.46% Other @ 2.15% Total : 31.92% |