Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belenenses win with a probability of 39.36%. A win for Tondela had a probability of 32.5% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belenenses win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.1%) and 2-0 (7.43%). The likeliest Tondela win was 0-1 (10.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Belenenses would win this match.
Result | ||
Belenenses | Draw | Tondela |
39.36% | 28.14% | 32.5% |
Both teams to score 46.96% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
40.9% | 59.1% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
20.45% | 79.55% |
Belenenses Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.75% | 29.25% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.79% | 65.21% |
Tondela Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.37% | 33.63% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.73% | 70.28% |
Score Analysis |
Belenenses | Draw | Tondela |
1-0 @ 12.09% 2-1 @ 8.1% 2-0 @ 7.43% 3-1 @ 3.32% 3-0 @ 3.05% 3-2 @ 1.81% 4-1 @ 1.02% 4-0 @ 0.94% Other @ 1.61% Total : 39.35% | 1-1 @ 13.17% 0-0 @ 9.84% 2-2 @ 4.41% Other @ 0.72% Total : 28.14% | 0-1 @ 10.72% 1-2 @ 7.18% 0-2 @ 5.84% 1-3 @ 2.61% 0-3 @ 2.12% 2-3 @ 1.6% Other @ 2.42% Total : 32.5% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 30 | 26 | 2 | 2 | 87 | 27 | 60 | 80 |
2 | Benfica | 30 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 68 | 24 | 44 | 73 |
3 | Porto | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 55 | 24 | 31 | 62 |
4 | Braga | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 63 | 41 | 22 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 30 | 17 | 6 | 7 | 45 | 32 | 13 | 57 |
6 | AroucaArouca | 30 | 13 | 5 | 12 | 51 | 40 | 11 | 44 |
7 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 43 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 30 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 32 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 31 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 30 | 5 | 16 | 9 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 31 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 37 | 48 | -11 | 31 |
13 | BoavistaBoavista | 30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 35 | 56 | -21 | 30 |
14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 45 | 52 | -7 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 30 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 30 | 62 | -32 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 30 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 29 | 62 | -33 | 21 |
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