Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 40.88%. A win for Maritimo had a probability of 31.34% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.34%) and 0-2 (7.71%). The likeliest Maritimo win was 1-0 (10.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.05%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Maritimo | Draw | Nacional |
| 31.34% | 27.78% | 40.88% |
| Both teams to score 47.66% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.94% | 58.05% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.27% | 78.73% |
| Maritimo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.09% | 33.91% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.42% | 70.58% |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.11% | 27.88% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.5% | 63.49% |
| Score Analysis |
| Maritimo | Draw | Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 10.22% 2-1 @ 7.06% 2-0 @ 5.53% 3-1 @ 2.55% 3-0 @ 1.99% 3-2 @ 1.63% Other @ 2.36% Total : 31.33% | 1-1 @ 13.05% 0-0 @ 9.45% 2-2 @ 4.51% Other @ 0.76% Total : 27.77% | 0-1 @ 12.07% 1-2 @ 8.34% 0-2 @ 7.71% 1-3 @ 3.55% 0-3 @ 3.28% 2-3 @ 1.92% 1-4 @ 1.13% 0-4 @ 1.05% Other @ 1.82% Total : 40.88% |