Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Legia Warsaw win with a probability of 52.54%. A win for Jagiellonia Bialystok had a probability of 24.66% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Legia Warsaw win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.83%) and 2-0 (8.14%). The likeliest Jagiellonia Bialystok win was 1-2 (6.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.55%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.