Nations League Gameweek 4
Oct 4, 2026 7.45pm
Philips Stadion

Netherlands vs Serbia - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Netherlands

All competitions
Nations League
Last game
Sep 24, 2026 7.45pm
Netherlands 1 - 1 Germany

Serbia

All competitions
Nations League
Last game
Sep 24, 2026 7.45pm
Serbia 1 - 2 Greece

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Netherlands win with a probability of 70.91%. A draw has a probability of 18.95% and a win for Serbia has a probability of 10.13%.

The most likely scoreline for a Netherlands win is 1-0 with a probability of 13.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (12.47%) and 3-0 (9.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (8.48%) , while for a Serbia win it is 0-1 (4.04%).

Result

Netherlands 70.91% ▲ (+4.77)
Draw 18.95% ▼ (-2.04)
Serbia 10.13% ▼ (-2.78)

Both Teams to Score: 

40.3% ▼ (-0.31)

Goals

Over 1.5 75.19% ▲ (+2.13)
Under 1.5 24.81% ▼ (-2.13)
Over 2.5 53.1% ▲ (+2.50)
Under 2.5 46.9% ▼ (-2.50)
Over 3.5 31.5% ▲ (+2.24)
Under 3.5 68.5% ▼ (-2.24)
Over 4.5 22.26% ▲ (+2.78)
Under 4.5 77.74% ▼ (-2.78)

First Half Winner

Netherlands 56.75% ▲ (+7.91)
Draw 33.38% ▼ (-4.05)
Serbia 9.86% ▼ (-3.88)

Team To Score First

Netherlands 72.68% ▲ (+5.53)
No Goal 7.36% ▼ (-0.96)
Serbia 19.96% ▼ (-4.56)

Corners

Over 8 63.79% ▲ (+5.18)
Equal 8 10.87% ▼ (-1.02)
Under 8 25.34% ▼ (-4.16)
Over 9 52.16% ▲ (+5.76)
Equal 9 11.62% ▼ (-0.60)
Under 9 36.21% ▼ (-5.18)
Over 10.5 40.81% ▲ (+5.86)
Under 10.5 59.2% ▼ (-5.85)

Netherlands Goals

Over 1.5 61.31% ▲ (+4.47)
Under 1.5 38.69% ▼ (-4.47)
Over 2.5 37.31% ▲ (+4.88)
Under 2.5 62.69% ▼ (-4.88)
Over 3.5 18.75% ▲ (+3.47)
Under 3.5 81.25% ▼ (-3.46)

Serbia Goals

Over 0.5 38.15% ▼ (-4.14)
Under 0.5 61.85% ▲ (+4.14)
Over 1.5 11.19% ▼ (-2.57)
Under 1.5 88.81% ▲ (+2.58)
Over 2.5 2.64% ▼ (-1.15)
Under 2.5 97.36% ▲ (+1.16)
Over 3.5 0.53% ▼ (-0.36)
Under 3.5 99.47% ▲ (+0.36)

Score analysis

Netherlands 70.91%
Draw 18.95%
Serbia 10.14%
Netherlands
1-0 @ 13.41% ▼ (-0.42)
2-0 @ 12.47% ▲ (+0.55)
3-0 @ 9.98% ▲ (+1.46)
2-1 @ 8.26% ▼ (-0.39)
3-1 @ 6.18% ▲ (+0.13)
3-2 @ 1.98% ▼ (-0.05)
Other @ 18.63% ▲ (+3.50)
Total : 70.91%
Draw
1-1 @ 8.48% ▼ (-0.54)
0-0 @ 7.36% ▼ (-0.96)
2-2 @ 2.57% ▼ (-0.37)
Other @ 0.12% ▼ (-0.05)
Total : 18.95%
Serbia
0-1 @ 4.04% ▼ (-0.76)
1-2 @ 2.87% ▼ (-0.61)
0-2 @ 1.13% ▼ (-0.42)
Other @ 0.41% ▼ (-0.32)
Total : 10.14%

Head to Head

Nations League Gameweek 2
Sep 27, 2026 5.00pm
1
2
HT : 0 1
FT Stadion Rajko Mitić
  • Saša Lukić 12' yellowcard
  • Luka Jović 46' goal
  • goal Mexx Meerdink 30'
  • goal Mexx Meerdink 69'
  • yellowcard Jurriën Timber  85'