Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Netherlands win with a probability of 66.99%. A draw had a probability of 20% and a win for Bosnia-Herzegovina had a probability of 13.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Netherlands win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.38%) and 2-1 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.47%), while for a Bosnia-Herzegovina win it was 0-1 (4.66%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Netherlands would win this match.