Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lithuania win with a probability of 78.8%. A draw had a probability of 14.1% and a win for Gibraltar had a probability of 7.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lithuania win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.41%) and 1-0 (10.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.7%), while for a Gibraltar win it was 0-1 (2.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lithuania would win this match.