Nations League
Italy
Mar 20, 2025 7.45pm
1
2
HT : 1 0
FT Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Germany
  • Sandro Tonali 9' goal
  • Nicolo Rovella 52' yellowcard
  • Daniel Maldini 74' yellowcard
  • goal Tim Kleindienst 49'
  • yellowcard Nadiem Amiri 55'
  • goal Leon Goretzka 76'

Italy vs Germany - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

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The match

Result
Match Preview
Predicted Lineups

Form, Standings, Stats

Italy

All competitions

Germany

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 41.56%. A win for Germany had a probability of 34.78% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.2%) and 2-0 (5.91%). The likeliest Germany win was 1-2 (7.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.69%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.

Result

Italy 41.56% ▼ (-0.19)
Draw 23.66% ▲ (+0.01)
Germany 34.78% ▲ (+0.19)

Both Teams to Score: 

62.36% ▲ (+0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5 60.45% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 2.5 39.55% ▼ (-0.03)
Over 3.5 38.1% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 3.5 61.89% ▼ (-0.03)
Over 4.5 20.64% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 4.5 79.36% ▼ (-0.03)

Italy Goals

Over 0.5 80.63% ▼ (-0.07)
Under 0.5 19.36% ▲ (+0.08)
Over 1.5 48.84% ▼ (-0.12)
Under 1.5 51.15% ▲ (+0.12)

Germany Goals

Over 0.5 77.34% ▲ (+0.12)
Under 0.5 22.66% ▼ (-0.12)
Over 1.5 43.7% ▲ (+0.17)
Under 1.5 56.3% ▼ (-0.17)

Score analysis

Italy 41.56%
Draw 23.66%
Germany 34.78%
Italy
2-1 @ 8.78% ▼ (-0.03)
1-0 @ 7.2% ▼ (-0.03)
2-0 @ 5.91% ▼ (-0.04)
3-1 @ 4.8% ▼ (-0.03)
3-2 @ 3.57% ▼ (-0.01)
3-0 @ 3.24% ▼ (-0.03)
4-1 @ 1.97% ▼ (-0.02)
4-2 @ 1.46% ▼ (-0.01)
4-0 @ 1.33% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 3.29%
Total : 41.56%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.69%
2-2 @ 6.52% ▲ (+0.01)
0-0 @ 4.39% ▼ (-0.01)
3-3 @ 1.77% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 0.3%
Total : 23.66%
Germany
1-2 @ 7.94% ▲ (+0.03)
0-1 @ 6.51% ▲ (+0.02)
0-2 @ 4.84% ▲ (+0.03)
1-3 @ 3.93% ▲ (+0.03)
2-3 @ 3.23% ▲ (+0.02)
0-3 @ 2.39% ▲ (+0.03)
1-4 @ 1.46% ▲ (+0.02)
2-4 @ 1.2% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 3.29%
Total : 34.78%

Head to Head

Nations League
Germany
Jun 14, 2022 7.45pm
5
2
HT : 2 0
FT
Italy
  • Joshua Kimmich 10' goal
  • Ilkay Gundogan 45'+4' goal
  • Thomas Muller 51' goal
  • Antonio Rudiger 61' yellowcard
  • Timo Werner 68' goal
  • Timo Werner 69' goal
  • Leroy Sane 82' yellowcard
  • goal Willy Gnonto 78'
  • goal Alessandro Bastoni 90'+4'
Nations League
Italy
Jun 4, 2022 7.45pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Germany
  • Lorenzo Pellegrini 51' yellowcard
  • Alessandro Florenzi 62' yellowcard
  • Sandro Tonali 66' yellowcard
  • Lorenzo Pellegrini 70' goal
  • Alessandro Bastoni 80' yellowcard
  • Matteo Cancellieri 90'+4' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Thilo Kehrer 62'
  • goal Joshua Kimmich 73'
  • yellowcard Kai Havertz 83'
  • yellowcard Timo Werner 89'
International Friendlies
Germany
Mar 31, 2020 7.45pm
Italy
International Friendlies
Italy
Nov 15, 2016 7.45pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Germany
  • yellowcard Jonathan Tah 61'
  • yellowcard Ilkay Gundogan 84'
European Championship
Germany
Jul 2, 2016 8.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT Stade de Bordeaux
Italy
  • Mesut Ozil 65' goal
  • Mats Hummels 90' yellowcard
  • Bastian Schweinsteiger 112' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Stefano Sturaro 56'
  • yellowcard Mattia De Sciglio 57'
  • yellowcard Marco Parolo 59'
  • goal Leonardo Bonucci 78'
  • yellowcard Graziano Pelle 91'
  • yellowcard Emanuele Giaccherini 103'
International Friendlies
Germany
Mar 29, 2016 7.45pm
4
1
HT : 2 0
FT
Italy
  • Toni Kroos 24' goal
  • Mario Gotze 45' goal
  • Mats Hummels 57' yellowcard
  • Jonas Hector 59' goal
  • Mesut Ozil 75' goal
  • Shkodran Mustafi 77' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Emanuele Giaccherini 15'
  • goal Stephan El Shaarawy 83'

Form Data

Italy 1 - 3 France
Belgium 0 - 1 Italy
Italy 4 - 1 Israel
Italy 2 - 2 Belgium
Israel 1 - 2 Italy
France 1 - 3 Italy
Hungary 1 - 1 Germany
Germany 7 - 0 Bosnia H'vina
Germany 1 - 0 Netherlands
Bosnia H'vina 1 - 2 Germany
Netherlands 2 - 2 Germany
Germany 5 - 0 Hungary

Build-up

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