UEFA Nations League

Nations League | Playoffs B/C | 1st Leg

Mar 20, 2025 at 7.45pm UK

Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex

Bulgaria
1 - 2
Rep. Ireland

(Republic of Ireland win 4-2 on aggregate)

Petkov (6')
Kraev (59'), Atanasov (61'), Nedyalkov (85'), Minkov (90+5')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Azaz (21'), Doherty (42')
Azaz (47'), Johnston (51'), Knight (61'), Vata (81')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Nations League clash between Bulgaria and Republic of Ireland, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bulgaria

All competitions

Last Game: Bulgaria 1-1 Belarus
Monday, November 18 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League C3 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Northern Ireland	0	0	0
2	Bulgaria	0	0	0
3	Luxembourg	0	0	0
4	Belarus	0	0	0

Republic of Ireland

All competitions

Last Game: England 5-0 Rep. Ireland
Sunday, November 17 at 5pm in Nations League

Current League B2 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	England	0	0	0
2	Republic of Ireland	0	0	0
3	Greece	0	0	0
4	Finland	0	0	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bulgaria win with a probability of 43.38%. A draw had a probability of 29% and a win for Republic of Ireland had a probability of 27.59%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bulgaria win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.82%) and 2-1 (8.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.17%), while for a Republic of Ireland win it was 0-1 (10.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.

Result
Bulgaria	Draw	Republic of Ireland
43.38% ( -0.58)	29.03% ( 0.06)	27.59% ( 0.52)

Both teams to score 42.62% (

0.15)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

36.46% (

0.04)

63.53% (

-0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

17.15% (

0.02)

82.85% (

-0.03)

Bulgaria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.85% (

-0.3)

29.15% (

0.29)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.91% (

-0.37)

65.09% (

0.37)

Republic of Ireland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.16% (

0.46)

39.84% (

-0.46)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.49% (

0.42)

76.5% (

-0.42)

Score Analysis

Bulgaria 43.37%

Republic of Ireland 27.58%

Draw 29.02%

Bulgaria	Draw	Republic of Ireland
1-0 @ 14.31% ( -0.14) 2-0 @ 8.82% ( -0.16) 2-1 @ 8.12% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 3.63% ( -0.1) 3-1 @ 3.34% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 1.54% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.12% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 1.03% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.48% Total : 43.37%	1-1 @ 13.17% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 11.61% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 3.74% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.51% Total : 29.02%	0-1 @ 10.68% ( 0.12) 1-2 @ 6.06% ( 0.09) 0-2 @ 4.92% ( 0.12) 1-3 @ 1.86% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 1.51% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 1.15% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.4% Total : 27.58%