UEFA Nations League

Nations League | League C

Sep 8, 2024 at 5pm UK

Stadion Hristo Botev

Bulgaria
1 - 0
N. Ireland

Despodov (40')
Ahmedov (78'), Nurnberger (90+1'), Kolev (90+3')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Charles (28'), McNair (29'), Bradley (59'), Hume (81')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Nations League clash between Bulgaria and Northern Ireland, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bulgaria

All competitions

Nations League

Last Game: Belarus 0-0 Bulgaria
Thursday, September 5 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current Group G Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Hungary	8	9	18
2	Serbia	8	6	14
3	Montenegro	8	-2	11
4	Lithuania	8	-6	6
5	Bulgaria	8	-7	4

Northern Ireland

All competitions

Nations League

Last Game: N. Ireland 2-0 Luxembourg
Thursday, September 5 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current Group H Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Slovenia	10	11	22
2	Denmark	10	9	22
3	Finland	10	8	18
4	Kazakhstan	10	4	18
5	Northern Ireland	10	-4	9
6	San Marino	10	-28	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bulgaria win with a probability of 46.51%. A win for Northern Ireland had a probability of 26.94% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bulgaria win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.02%) and 2-0 (8.8%). The likeliest Northern Ireland win was 0-1 (8.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Bulgaria in this match.

Result
Bulgaria	Draw	Northern Ireland
46.51% ( -0.39)	26.55% ( 0.02)	26.94% ( 0.38)

Both teams to score 48.88% (

0.23)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.62% (

0.16)

55.38% (

-0.16)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.42% (

0.13)

76.58% (

-0.13)

Bulgaria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.21% (

-0.12)

23.79% (

0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.05% (

-0.17)

57.95% (

0.17)

Northern Ireland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.13% (

0.4)

35.87% (

-0.4)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.36% (

0.41)

72.65% (

-0.41)

Score Analysis

Bulgaria 46.51%

Northern Ireland 26.94%

Draw 26.55%

Bulgaria	Draw	Northern Ireland
1-0 @ 12.25% ( -0.12) 2-1 @ 9.02% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 8.8% ( -0.12) 3-1 @ 4.32% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 4.21% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 2.21% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.55% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.51% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.64% Total : 46.51%	1-1 @ 12.56% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 8.53% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 4.62% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.83% Total : 26.55%	0-1 @ 8.75% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 6.44% ( 0.08) 0-2 @ 4.49% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 2.2% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 1.58% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 1.53% ( 0.04) Other @ 1.96% Total : 26.94%