Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bulgaria win with a probability of 58.47%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Luxembourg had a probability of 17.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bulgaria win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.26%) and 2-1 (9.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.3%), while for a Luxembourg win it was 0-1 (6.91%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood.