We said: Austria 2-0 Serbia
Serbia have not been in great form over the past year, and they have a few key players out for this match, whereas Austria seem to be making some good progress under Rangnick.
They will need a comfortable lead to take with them into the tricky return leg, and we think that they can win by two goals here to set themselves up nicely for Sunday's crunch match.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austria win with a probability of 65.16%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Serbia had a probability of 13.86%.
The most likely scoreline for an Austria win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.66%) and 2-1 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.92%), while for a Serbia win it was 0-1 (5.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood.