UEFA Nations League

Nations League | Playoffs A/B | 1st Leg

Mar 20, 2025 at 7.45pm UK

Ernst-Happel-Stadion

Austria
1 - 1
Serbia

(Serbia win 3-1 on aggregate)

Gregoritsch (37')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Samardzic (61')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Nations League clash between Austria and Serbia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Austria

All competitions

Last Game: Austria 1-1 Slovenia
Sunday, November 17 at 5pm in Nations League

Current League B3 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Kazakhstan	0	0	0
2	Austria	0	0	0
3	Norway	0	0	0
4	Slovenia	0	0	0

Serbia

All competitions

Last Game: Serbia 0-0 Denmark
Monday, November 18 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League A4 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Spain	6	9	16
2	Denmark	6	2	8
3	Serbia	6	-3	6
4	Switzerland	6	-8	2

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austria win with a probability of 65.16%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Serbia had a probability of 13.86%.

The most likely scoreline for an Austria win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.66%) and 2-1 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.92%), while for a Serbia win it was 0-1 (5.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood.

Result
Austria	Draw	Serbia
65.16% ( 1.33)	20.98% ( -0.5)	13.86% ( -0.83)

Both teams to score 45.5% (

-0.54)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.51% (

0.4)

49.49% (

-0.4)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.47% (

0.35)

71.52% (

-0.36)

Austria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.57% (

0.55)

14.42% (

-0.55)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.64% (

1.05)

42.36% (

-1.05)

Serbia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

53.17% (

-0.98)

46.83% (

0.98)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

17.64% (

-0.76)

82.36% (

0.75)

Score Analysis

Austria 65.15%

Serbia 13.86%

Draw 20.98%

Austria	Draw	Serbia
1-0 @ 13.08% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 12.66% ( 0.29) 2-1 @ 9.61% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 8.17% ( 0.34) 3-1 @ 6.2% ( 0.09) 4-0 @ 3.96% ( 0.24) 4-1 @ 3% ( 0.1) 3-2 @ 2.35% ( -0.03) 5-0 @ 1.53% ( 0.12) 5-1 @ 1.16% ( 0.06) 4-2 @ 1.14% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.3% Total : 65.15%	1-1 @ 9.92% ( -0.24) 0-0 @ 6.76% ( -0.11) 2-2 @ 3.64% ( -0.12) Other @ 0.65% Total : 20.98%	0-1 @ 5.13% ( -0.23) 1-2 @ 3.76% ( -0.2) 0-2 @ 1.94% ( -0.14) 1-3 @ 0.95% ( -0.08) 2-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.06) Other @ 1.16% Total : 13.86%