We said: Serbia 1-1 Denmark
Denmark can hold out for a draw against one of the lowest-scoring teams in League A, securing their spot in the Nations League's last eight.
Rarely able to click in the final third, Serbia will also have modest support behind them in Leskovac, which is far less intimidating than Belgrade's menacing Marakana.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Denmark win with a probability of 40.44%. A win for Serbia had a probability of 33.76% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Denmark win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.68%) and 0-2 (6.82%). The likeliest Serbia win was 1-0 (8.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.24%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.