Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spain win with a probability of 47.98%. A win for Denmark had a probability of 28.26% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spain win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.76%) and 2-0 (7.5%). The likeliest Denmark win was 1-2 (6.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Spain would win this match.