Euro 2024

European Championship | Quarter-Finals

Jul 5, 2024 at 5pm UK

Mercedes-Benz-Arena

Spain
2 - 1
Germany

Olmo (51'), Merino (119')
Le Normand (29'), Torres (74'), Simon (82'), Carvajal (100'), Rodri (110'), Ruiz (120')

FT
(aet)

Wirtz (89')
Rudiger (13'), Raum (28'), Andrich (56'), Kroos (67'), Mittelstadt (73'), Schlotterbeck (89'), Wirtz (94'), Undav (113')

Reaction

Spain's Lamine Yamal celebrates on July 5, 2024

Spain's Lamine Yamal breaks another record in Euro 2024 quarter-final

Sixteen-year-old Spain winger Lamine Yamal writes another page of history in La Roja's 2-1 Euro 2024 quarter-final triumph over Germany in Stuttgart.

Jul 6, 08:07

Spain's Rodri and Dani Carvajal in action with Germany's Jamal Musiala on July 5, 2024

Spain vs. Germany player ratings: Substitute Dani Olmo steals the show for La Roja

Sports Mole provides player ratings for Spain's 2-1 win over Germany in the quarter-finals of Euro 2024.

Jul 5, 19:37

Spain's Pedri in action with Germany's Toni Kroos on July 5, 2024

Spain's injury-plagued Pedri suffers major Euro 2024 fitness blow

Spain midfielder Pedri suffers an injury in the opening stages of La Roja's Euro 2024 quarter-final with Germany, being forced off following two fouls from Toni Kroos.

Jul 5, 16:25

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Spain

All competitions

European Championship

Last Game: Spain 4-1 Georgia
Sunday, June 30 at 8pm in European Championship

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Spain	3	5	9
2	Italy	3	0	4
3	Croatia	3	-3	2
4	Albania	3	-2	1

Germany

All competitions

European Championship

Last Game: Germany 2-0 Denmark
Saturday, June 29 at 8pm in European Championship

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Germany	3	6	7
2	Switzerland	3	2	5
3	Hungary	3	-3	3
4	Scotland	3	-5	1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spain win with a probability of 47.32%. A win for Germany had a probability of 28.79% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Spain win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.76%) and 2-0 (7.4%). The likeliest Germany win was 1-2 (7.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.11%).

Result
Spain	Draw	Germany
47.32% ( -0.57)	23.89% ( -0.01)	28.79% ( 0.57)

Both teams to score 58.66% (

0.44)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.8% (

0.39)

43.2% (

-0.39)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.4% (

0.38)

65.59% (

-0.39)

Spain Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.57% (

-0.08)

18.43% (

0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.41% (

-0.13)

49.59% (

0.12)

Germany Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.9% (

0.6)

28.09% (

-0.61)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.24% (

0.76)

63.76% (

-0.76)

Score Analysis

Spain 47.32%

Germany 28.79%

Draw 23.89%

Spain	Draw	Germany
2-1 @ 9.4% ( -0.05) 1-0 @ 8.76% ( -0.17) 2-0 @ 7.4% ( -0.17) 3-1 @ 5.3% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 4.17% ( -0.1) 3-2 @ 3.37% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 2.24% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.77% ( -0.05) 4-2 @ 1.42% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.49% Total : 47.32%	1-1 @ 11.11% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 5.97% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 5.18% ( -0.09) 3-3 @ 1.42% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.21% Total : 23.89%	1-2 @ 7.06% ( 0.1) 0-1 @ 6.57% ( -0) 0-2 @ 4.17% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 2.99% ( 0.09) 2-3 @ 2.53% ( 0.07) 0-3 @ 1.77% ( 0.06) 1-4 @ 0.95% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.76% Total : 28.79%