Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 53.93%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 22.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.79%) and 2-0 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.12%), while for a Hartlepool United win it was 0-1 (6.32%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chesterfield would win this match.