Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Buxton win with a probability of 49.84%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Southport had a probability of 24.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Buxton win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.38%) and 2-0 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.09%), while for a Southport win it was 0-1 (7.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Buxton would win this match.