Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marine AFC win with a probability of 40.35%. A win for Buxton had a probability of 32.99% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marine AFC win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.54%) and 2-0 (7.16%). The likeliest Buxton win was 0-1 (9.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood.