In search of consecutive wins for the first time since February, Moreirense play host to Tondela at the Parque de Jogos Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas on Saturday.
The away side have the worst record on the road this term, having picked up just five points from their 13 games as a visiting team.
Match preview
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Fresh off the back of an impressive 1-1 draw against Sporting Lisbon a fortnight ago, Moreirense overcame Gil Vicente in a 2-1 win on Sunday.
Vasco Seabra's men took the lead inside the opening 20 minutes from the penalty spot through Rafael Martins, before parity was restored moments into the second half thanks to Pedro Marques's third goal in four games, but Ygor Nogueira had a day to forget as he inadvertently turned the ball into his own net to decide the game.
Os Verdes e Brancos strengthened their position in the top half as a result of that win, and they are on course to equal - if not better - last season's eighth-placed finish.
Saturday's hosts were held to a goalless draw by the visitors when they clashed in December's reverse fixture at the Estadio Joao Cardoso.
Recent meetings between the teams have been keenly contested, with the last 13 games yielding five wins for Moreirense to Tondela's four, while the points have been split on four occasions.
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Tondela were unable to build upon their first away Primeira Liga victory since July as they were defeated 2-0 by Porto on Saturday.
Goals in either half from Toni Martinez and Mehdi Taremi were enough to condemn Pako Ayestaran's men to their 14th defeat of the season.
The Auriverdes are now just four points away from danger, and they are beginning to get drawn into a late relegation squabble.
Fragility in defence has been a source of concern for Saturday's visitors, with their defensive record worse than all but one of the other 17 sides.
If a significant improvement is to be made in the coming weeks, then tightening up at the back would be a good starting point.
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Team News
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Tondela have a clean bill of health for this one as Pako Ayestaran goes in search of back-to-back triumphs away from home.
Mario Gonzalez was at the double in his side's last outing on the road, and he will be hopeful of having a similar impact on this weekend's clash.
Derik Lacerda is ruled out for the home team with a shoulder injury through which he has missed the last three league matches.
Pedro Nuno and Pedro Amador are yet to feature since October when they sustained knee injuries, while Sori Mane's last appearance came in last season's edition of this fixture.
Moreirense possible starting lineup:
Pasinato; Conte, Vitoria, Rosic, D'Alberto; Franco, Pacheco, Soares; Pires, Silva, Martins
Tondela possible starting lineup:
Trigueira; Ferreira, Alves, Medioub, Bebeto; Olabe, Grau, Pedro; Agra, Gonzalez, Barbosa
We say: Moreirense 2-1 Tondela
While the hosts have not necessarily been impressive at home this term, the visitors have been dismal on their travels, and we expect that trend to continue in this one with a narrow victory for the home side.
Top tip
Adepoju Marvellous
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 36.59%. A win for Tondela had a probability of 34.41% and a draw had a probability of 29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.56%) and 2-0 (6.96%). The likeliest Tondela win was 0-1 (11.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.
