Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 48.4%. A win for Charlotte FC had a probability of 27.21% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.48%) and 2-0 (8.08%). The likeliest Charlotte FC win was 0-1 (7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.51%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Toronto would win this match.