Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Kansas City win with a probability of 55.98%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for Minnesota United had a probability of 21.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Kansas City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.87%) and 2-0 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.85%), while for a Minnesota United win it was 0-1 (5.98%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Kansas City would win this match.