Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Louis City win with a probability of 44.19%. A win for San Jose Earthquakes had a probability of 31.64% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Louis City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.34%) and 2-0 (6.79%). The likeliest San Jose Earthquakes win was 1-2 (7.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for St Louis City in this match.