Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Jose Earthquakes win with a probability of 41.08%. A win for Houston Dynamo had a probability of 35.78% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Jose Earthquakes win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.51%) and 2-0 (5.5%). The likeliest Houston Dynamo win was 1-2 (7.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.19%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.