Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 57.56%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for DC United had a probability of 18.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.74%) and 2-1 (9.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.39%), while for a DC United win it was 0-1 (6.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for New York Red Bulls in this match.