Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New England Revolution win with a probability of 42.07%. A win for Philadelphia Union had a probability of 33.43% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a New England Revolution win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.63%) and 2-0 (6.14%). The likeliest Philadelphia Union win was 1-2 (7.96%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.03%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood.