Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Houston Dynamo win with a probability of 59.91%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Sporting Kansas City had a probability of 18.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Houston Dynamo win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.58%) and 1-0 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.89%), while for a Sporting Kansas City win it was 1-2 (5.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.