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Major League Soccer
Atlanta United
Major League Soccer
Feb 26, 2023 at 12.30am UK
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
San Jose Earthquakes

Atlanta
2 - 1
Earthquakes

Almada (90+3', 90+9')
Almada (90+9'), Ibarra (90+1')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Ebobisse (12')
Gruezo (13'), Kikanovic (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Major League Soccer clash between Atlanta United and San Jose Earthquakes, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atlanta United

All competitions
Last Game: Atlanta 1-2 NY City
Sunday, October 9 at 7.30pm in Major League Soccer

San Jose Earthquakes

All competitions
Last Game: Seattle 2-2 Earthquakes
Sunday, October 9 at 10pm in Major League Soccer

We said: Atlanta United 2-2 San Jose Earthquakes

 We believe that San Jose will break Atlanta's 100% win record against them and will fight their way to their first point of the MLS season at the first time of asking. While San Jose do have defensive issues, we think that the danger they possess in forward areas has an equal capacity to hurt an Atlanta defence that has looked shaky throughout pre-season.

How to watch

You can watch Atlanta United vs. San Jose Earthquakes and every MLS match this season live on Apple TV. Click here for more details on how to subscribe. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atlanta United win with a probability of 57.85%. A win for San Jose Earthquakes had a probability of 21.24% and a draw had a probability of 20.9%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atlanta United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.23%) and 1-0 (7.92%). The likeliest San Jose Earthquakes win was 1-2 (5.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Atlanta United in this match.

Result
Atlanta UnitedDrawSan Jose Earthquakes
57.85% (0.226 0.23) 20.91% (-0.323 -0.32) 21.24% (0.101 0.1)
Both teams to score 60.84% (1.343 1.34)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
63.4% (1.69 1.69)36.6% (-1.687 -1.69)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
41.25% (1.818 1.82)58.75% (-1.815 -1.82)
Atlanta United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.5% (0.61199999999999 0.61)12.5% (-0.61 -0.61)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
61.5% (1.255 1.26)38.5% (-1.252 -1.25)
San Jose Earthquakes Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.53% (1.059 1.06)30.47% (-1.057 -1.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.32% (1.242 1.24)66.68% (-1.238 -1.24)
Score Analysis
    Atlanta United 57.85%
    San Jose Earthquakes 21.24%
    Draw 20.91%
Atlanta UnitedDrawSan Jose Earthquakes
2-1 @ 9.79% (-0.062000000000001 -0.06)
2-0 @ 8.23% (-0.297 -0.3)
1-0 @ 7.92% (-0.477 -0.48)
3-1 @ 6.78% (0.113 0.11)
3-0 @ 5.71% (-0.07 -0.07)
3-2 @ 4.03% (0.181 0.18)
4-1 @ 3.53% (0.138 0.14)
4-0 @ 2.97% (0.032 0.03)
4-2 @ 2.1% (0.14 0.14)
5-1 @ 1.47% (0.09 0.09)
5-0 @ 1.23% (0.042 0.04)
Other @ 4.11%
Total : 57.85%
1-1 @ 9.41% (-0.281 -0.28)
2-2 @ 5.82% (0.131 0.13)
0-0 @ 3.81% (-0.324 -0.32)
3-3 @ 1.6% (0.116 0.12)
Other @ 0.27%
Total : 20.91%
1-2 @ 5.59% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-1 @ 4.53% (-0.244 -0.24)
0-2 @ 2.69% (-0.064 -0.06)
2-3 @ 2.3% (0.117 0.12)
1-3 @ 2.22% (0.063 0.06)
0-3 @ 1.07% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 2.84%
Total : 21.24%

How you voted: Atlanta vs Earthquakes

Atlanta United
87.5%
Draw
6.3%
San Jose Earthquakes
6.3%
16
Head to Head
May 30, 2020 11pm
Earthquakes
P-P
Atlanta
Sep 21, 2019 8.30pm
Atlanta
3-1
Earthquakes
Meram (4'), Hyndman (90'), Martinez (92')
Hyndman (14'), Meram (24')
Guzan (27' og.)
Espinoza (16'), Vega (48'), Judson (62')
Espinoza (34'), Wondolowski (91')
Sep 20, 2018 4am
Earthquakes
3-4
Atlanta
Lima (13'), Hoesen (43'), Qazaishvili (58')
Salinas (53')
Villalba (45'), Martinez (70' pen., 95'), Almiron (73')
Escobar (7'), Larentowicz (18')
Jul 5, 2017 12am
Atlanta
4-2
Earthquakes
Carmona (55'), Martinez (65', 89'), Walkes (81')
Walkes (15'), Carmona (42'), Gonzalez Pirez (45'), Larentowicz (74'), Martinez (90')
Thompson (2'), Wondolowski (66')
Sarkodie (10'), Bingham (18')
Sarkodie (32'), Bernardez (93')
rhs 2.0
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Eastern Conference

TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Inter MiamiInter Miami1383235201527
2FC CincinnatiCincinnati127321510524
3New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls125522018220
4Toronto126151617-119
5DC United124531919017
6New York City FCNY City125251414017
7Charlotte FCCharlotte FC125251313017
8Columbus Crew113621311215
9Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia113532119214
10Atlanta UnitedAtlanta113351614212
11Orlando City113351420-612
12CF MontrealMontreal113351523-812
13Nashville SCNashville112541419-511
14Chicago Fire122461222-1010
15New England RevolutionNew England11218922-137

Western Conference

TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Real Salt LakeSalt Lake126422011922
2Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd106221711620
3Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy125522319420
4Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver115331813518
5Los Angeles FCLos Angeles125342219318
6Colorado RapidsColorado125342018218
7Houston DynamoHouston115241111017
8St Louis City113711815316
9Austin FCAustin124441515016
10Seattle SoundersSeattle123451514113
11Sporting Kansas CityKansas122551921-211
12Dallas113261216-411
13Portland TimbersPortland122462125-410
14San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes123182028-810
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