Next Premier League manager sacked: Michael Carrick 75% likely to lose Man United job

Chaos continues to follow Manchester United everywhere they go in the 2026-27 season, and the final Premier League game before the November international break was no different.

Despite falling 2-0 and 4-2 down to Champions League-competing Aston Villa, the Red Devils produced two magnificent turnarounds to draw 4-4 at Old Trafford, extending their unbeaten run to two games after an equally absorbing 3-2 Champions League success over Roma.

However, Man United will nevertheless spend the next couple of weeks in the bottom three of the Premier League table, and their precarious position has done little to quieten the noise around Michael Carrick's future.

The Man Utd hierarchy will supposedly make a decision on the Englishman's tenure during a meeting in Monaco on Wednesday, but is he statistically the favourite to be given the boot out of all 20 top-flight head coaches?

Here, Sports Mole looks at which Premier League manager is most likely to be the next to lose their job.

#18 Manchester United Michael Carrick UCL qualification   75% Critical

Michael Carrick Manchester United #18 · Objectif : UCL qualification 1V 5N 4D · 8 pts

League position vs objective 35 / 35 pts #18 — 14 places below target (UCL qualification)   Points per game 20 / 20 pts 0.80 PPG — objective threshold: 1.84   Win rate 7 / 10 pts 1W 5D 4L in 10 → 10% win rate   Recent form (last 6) 15 / 20 pts 0W 4D 2L → 4 pts of 18   ✅European campaign 0 / 10 pts UCL: 2W 0D 2L (8-8)   Ownership firing habit 6 / 15 pts 2 mid-season changes over 5 seasons (0.40/yr)   Dismissal probability 75%

#20 Crystal Palace Pierre Sage Middle of the table   72% Critical

Pierre Sage Crystal Palace #20 · Objectif : Middle of the table 2V 1N 7D · 7 pts

League position vs objective 35 / 35 pts #20 — 7 places below target (Middle of the table)   Points per game 20 / 20 pts 0.70 PPG — objective threshold: 1.21   Win rate 4 / 10 pts 2W 1D 7L in 10 → 20% win rate   Recent form (last 6) 15 / 20 pts 1W 1D 4L → 4 pts of 18   European campaign 2 / 10 pts UEL: 1W 2D 1L (9-6)   Ownership firing habit 3 / 15 pts No history → median (0.20)   Dismissal probability 72%

#19 Sunderland Régis Le Bris Middle of the table   64% At risk

Régis Le Bris Sunderland #19 · Objectif : Middle of the table 2V 2N 6D · 8 pts

League position vs objective 35 / 35 pts #19 — 6 places below target (Middle of the table)   Points per game 16 / 20 pts 0.80 PPG — objective threshold: 1.21   Win rate 4 / 10 pts 2W 2D 6L in 10 → 20% win rate   Recent form (last 6) 15 / 20 pts 1W 1D 4L → 4 pts of 18   ✅European campaign 0 / 10 pts UEL: 2W 1D 1L (4-4)   ✅Ownership firing habit 0 / 15 pts No history → median (0.20)   Dismissal probability 64%

#12 Newcastle United Matthias Jaissle European places   52% At risk

Matthias Jaissle Newcastle United #12 · Objectif : European places 3V 3N 4D · 12 pts

League position vs objective 28 / 35 pts #12 — 4 places below target (European places)   Points per game 15 / 20 pts 1.20 PPG — objective threshold: 1.58   Win rate 1 / 10 pts 3W 3D 4L in 10 → 30% win rate   Recent form (last 6) 10 / 20 pts 2W 1D 3L → 7 pts of 18   ✅European campaign 0 / 10 pts Not applicable (not in Europe)   Ownership firing habit 3 / 15 pts 1 mid-season change over 5 seasons (0.20/yr)   Dismissal probability 52%

#10 Aston Villa Unai Emery European places   34% Watch

Unai Emery Aston Villa #10 · Objectif : European places 3V 4N 3D · 13 pts

League position vs objective 14 / 35 pts #10 — 2 places below target (European places)   Points per game 11 / 20 pts 1.30 PPG — objective threshold: 1.58   Win rate 1 / 10 pts 3W 4D 3L in 10 → 30% win rate   Recent form (last 6) 5 / 20 pts 3W 3D 0L → 12 pts of 18   ✅European campaign 0 / 10 pts UCL: 3W 0D 1L (12-6)   Ownership firing habit 6 / 15 pts 2 mid-season changes over 5 seasons (0.40/yr)   Dismissal probability 34%

#5 Chelsea Xabi Alonso UCL qualification   33% Watch

Xabi Alonso Chelsea #5 · Objectif : UCL qualification 5V 1N 4D · 16 pts

League position vs objective 7 / 35 pts #5 — 1 place below target (UCL qualification)   Points per game 10 / 20 pts 1.60 PPG — objective threshold: 1.84   ✅Win rate 0 / 10 pts 5W 1D 4L in 10 → 50% win rate   Recent form (last 6) 10 / 20 pts 3W 0D 3L → 9 pts of 18   ✅European campaign 0 / 10 pts Not applicable (not in Europe)   Ownership firing habit 9 / 15 pts 3 mid-season changes over 5 seasons (0.60/yr)   Dismissal probability 33%

#15 Fulham Arbeloa Middle of the table   33% Watch

Arbeloa Fulham #15 · Objectif : Middle of the table 2V 4N 4D · 10 pts

League position vs objective 14 / 35 pts #15 — 2 places below target (Middle of the table)   Points per game 8 / 20 pts 1.00 PPG — objective threshold: 1.21   Win rate 4 / 10 pts 2W 4D 4L in 10 → 20% win rate   Recent form (last 6) 10 / 20 pts 2W 3D 1L → 9 pts of 18   ✅European campaign 0 / 10 pts Not applicable (not in Europe)   ✅Ownership firing habit 0 / 15 pts 0 mid-season change over 3 seasons (0.00/yr)   Dismissal probability 33%

#9 Leeds United Daniel Farke Middle of the table   24% Safe

Daniel Farke Leeds United #9 · Objectif : Middle of the table 3V 5N 2D · 14 pts

✅League position vs objective 0 / 35 pts #9 — Middle of the table — objective met   ✅Points per game 0 / 20 pts 1.40 PPG — objective threshold: 1.21   Win rate 1 / 10 pts 3W 5D 2L in 10 → 30% win rate   Recent form (last 6) 15 / 20 pts 1W 3D 2L → 6 pts of 18   ✅European campaign 0 / 10 pts Not applicable (not in Europe)   Ownership firing habit 10 / 15 pts 2 mid-season changes over 3 seasons (0.67/yr)   Dismissal probability 24%

#16 Nottingham Forest Oliver Glasner Comfortable survival   24% Safe

Oliver Glasner Nottingham Forest #16 · Objectif : Comfortable survival 2V 3N 5D · 9 pts

✅League position vs objective 0 / 35 pts #16 — Comfortable survival — objective met   Points per game 2 / 20 pts 0.90 PPG — objective threshold: 0.95   Win rate 4 / 10 pts 2W 3D 5L in 10 → 20% win rate   Recent form (last 6) 15 / 20 pts 1W 1D 4L → 4 pts of 18   ✅European campaign 0 / 10 pts Not applicable (not in Europe)   Ownership firing habit 5 / 15 pts 1 mid-season change over 3 seasons (0.33/yr)   Dismissal probability 24%

#13 Hull City Sergej Jakirović Fighting relegation   22% Safe

Sergej Jakirović Hull City #13 · Objectif : Fighting relegation 2V 5N 3D · 11 pts

✅League position vs objective 0 / 35 pts #13 — Fighting relegation — objective met   ✅Points per game 0 / 20 pts 1.10 PPG — survival threshold: 0.45   Win rate 4 / 10 pts 2W 5D 3L in 10 → 20% win rate   Recent form (last 6) 20 / 20 pts 0W 3D 3L → 3 pts of 18   ✅European campaign 0 / 10 pts Not applicable (not in Europe)   ✅Ownership firing habit 0 / 15 pts No history → median (0.20)   Dismissal probability 22%

#3 Manchester City Enzo Maresca Win the title   21% Safe

Enzo Maresca Manchester City #3 · Objectif : Win the title 7V 0N 3D · 21 pts

League position vs objective 7 / 35 pts #3 — 1 place below target (Win the title)   Points per game 6 / 20 pts 2.10 PPG — objective threshold: 2.24   ✅Win rate 0 / 10 pts 7W 0D 3L in 10 → 70% win rate   Recent form (last 6) 10 / 20 pts 3W 0D 3L → 9 pts of 18   ✅European campaign 0 / 10 pts UCL: 3W 0D 1L (12-7)   ✅Ownership firing habit 0 / 15 pts 0 mid-season change over 5 seasons (0.00/yr)   Dismissal probability 21%

#8 Brentford Keith Andrews European places   16% Safe

Keith Andrews Brentford #8 · Objectif : European places 3V 5N 2D · 14 pts

✅League position vs objective 0 / 35 pts #8 — European places — objective met   Points per game 7 / 20 pts 1.40 PPG — objective threshold: 1.58   Win rate 1 / 10 pts 3W 5D 2L in 10 → 30% win rate   Recent form (last 6) 10 / 20 pts 2W 2D 2L → 8 pts of 18   ✅European campaign 0 / 10 pts Not applicable (not in Europe)   ✅Ownership firing habit 0 / 15 pts 0 mid-season change over 4 seasons (0.00/yr)   Dismissal probability 16%

#14 Ipswich Town Gary O'Neil Fighting relegation   15% Safe

Gary O'Neil Ipswich Town #14 · Objectif : Fighting relegation 3V 2N 5D · 11 pts

✅League position vs objective 0 / 35 pts #14 — Fighting relegation — objective met   ✅Points per game 0 / 20 pts 1.10 PPG — survival threshold: 0.45   Win rate 1 / 10 pts 3W 2D 5L in 10 → 30% win rate   Recent form (last 6) 15 / 20 pts 1W 2D 3L → 5 pts of 18   ✅European campaign 0 / 10 pts Not applicable (not in Europe)   ✅Ownership firing habit 0 / 15 pts 0 mid-season change over 1 season (0.00/yr)   Dismissal probability 15%

#6 Everton David Moyes Middle of the table   13% Safe

David Moyes Everton #6 · Objectif : Middle of the table 4V 4N 2D · 16 pts

✅League position vs objective 0 / 35 pts #6 — Middle of the table — objective met   ✅Points per game 0 / 20 pts 1.60 PPG — objective threshold: 1.21   ✅Win rate 0 / 10 pts 4W 4D 2L in 10 → 40% win rate   Recent form (last 6) 5 / 20 pts 3W 1D 2L → 10 pts of 18   ✅European campaign 0 / 10 pts Not applicable (not in Europe)   Ownership firing habit 9 / 15 pts 3 mid-season changes over 5 seasons (0.60/yr)   Dismissal probability 13%

#11 Tottenham Hotspur Roberto De Zerbi Middle of the table   11% Safe

Roberto De Zerbi Tottenham Hotspur #11 · Objectif : Middle of the table 3V 3N 4D · 12 pts

✅League position vs objective 0 / 35 pts #11 — Middle of the table — objective met   ✅Points per game 0 / 20 pts 1.20 PPG — objective threshold: 1.21   Win rate 1 / 10 pts 3W 3D 4L in 10 → 30% win rate   Recent form (last 6) 5 / 20 pts 3W 1D 2L → 10 pts of 18   ✅European campaign 0 / 10 pts Not applicable (not in Europe)   Ownership firing habit 6 / 15 pts 2 mid-season changes over 5 seasons (0.40/yr)   Dismissal probability 11%

#17 Coventry City Frank Lampard Fighting relegation   10% Safe

Frank Lampard Coventry City #17 · Objectif : Fighting relegation 3V 0N 7D · 9 pts

✅League position vs objective 0 / 35 pts #17 — Fighting relegation — objective met   ✅Points per game 0 / 20 pts 0.90 PPG — survival threshold: 0.45   Win rate 1 / 10 pts 3W 0D 7L in 10 → 30% win rate   Recent form (last 6) 10 / 20 pts 3W 0D 3L → 9 pts of 18   ✅European campaign 0 / 10 pts Not applicable (not in Europe)   ✅Ownership firing habit 0 / 15 pts No history → median (0.20)   Dismissal probability 10%

#7 AFC Bournemouth Marco Rose Middle of the table   7% Safe

Marco Rose AFC Bournemouth #7 · Objectif : Middle of the table 4V 3N 3D · 15 pts

✅League position vs objective 0 / 35 pts #7 — Middle of the table — objective met   ✅Points per game 0 / 20 pts 1.50 PPG — objective threshold: 1.21   ✅Win rate 0 / 10 pts 4W 3D 3L in 10 → 40% win rate   Recent form (last 6) 5 / 20 pts 4W 0D 2L → 12 pts of 18   ✅European campaign 0 / 10 pts UEL: 4W 0D 0L (11-2)   Ownership firing habit 3 / 15 pts No history → median (0.20)   Dismissal probability 7%

#4 Liverpool Andoni Iraola UCL qualification   6% Safe

Andoni Iraola Liverpool #4 · Objectif : UCL qualification 5V 3N 2D · 18 pts

✅League position vs objective 0 / 35 pts #4 — UCL qualification — objective met   Points per game 2 / 20 pts 1.80 PPG — objective threshold: 1.84   ✅Win rate 0 / 10 pts 5W 3D 2L in 10 → 50% win rate   Recent form (last 6) 5 / 20 pts 4W 0D 2L → 12 pts of 18   ✅European campaign 0 / 10 pts UCL: 3W 0D 1L (14-10)   ✅Ownership firing habit 0 / 15 pts 0 mid-season change over 5 seasons (0.00/yr)   Dismissal probability 6%

#2 Brighton & Hove Albion Fabian Hürzeler European places   3% Safe

Fabian Hürzeler Brighton & Hove Albion #2 · Objectif : European places 7V 1N 2D · 22 pts

✅League position vs objective 0 / 35 pts #2 — European places — objective met   ✅Points per game 0 / 20 pts 2.20 PPG — objective threshold: 1.58   ✅Win rate 0 / 10 pts 7W 1D 2L in 10 → 70% win rate   ✅Recent form (last 6) 0 / 20 pts 5W 0D 1L → 15 pts of 18   ✅European campaign 0 / 10 pts UECL: 3W 2D 0L (9-0)   Ownership firing habit 3 / 15 pts 1 mid-season change over 5 seasons (0.20/yr)   Dismissal probability 3%

#1 Arsenal Mikel Arteta Win the title   0% Safe

Mikel Arteta Arsenal #1 · Objectif : Win the title 9V 0N 1D · 27 pts

✅League position vs objective 0 / 35 pts #1 — Win the title — objective met   ✅Points per game 0 / 20 pts 2.70 PPG — objective threshold: 2.24   ✅Win rate 0 / 10 pts 9W 0D 1L in 10 → 90% win rate   ✅Recent form (last 6) 0 / 20 pts 5W 0D 1L → 15 pts of 18   ✅European campaign 0 / 10 pts UCL: 3W 1D 0L (8-3)   ✅Ownership firing habit 0 / 15 pts 0 mid-season change over 5 seasons (0.00/yr)   Dismissal probability 0%

Next Premier League manager sacked: Michael Carrick marginally ahead of Pierre Sage

According to the data, Carrick is the favourite to be the next Premier League manager to be sacked, as he is given a 75% chance of losing his job by our statistical model.

Each manager is scored out of six categories - pre-season objective, points per game, win rate, recent form, European campaign and ownership firing habit - to conjure up a total dismissal probability, and it is little surprise to see Carrick so high up.

The Man Utd manager would have been tasked with back-to-back Champions League qualifications after last season's success, but his troops are instead languishing in the relegation zone with just one win from 10 Premier League matches.

Carrick's points-per-game total of 0.80 is also significantly lower than the desired 1.84 for the Red Devils, who have also not shied away from mid-season managerial changes, getting rid of Erik ten Hag and Ruben Amorim with the campaign in full swing.

Just below Carrick sits under-fire Crystal Palace boss Pierre Sage, who is 72% likely to be fired by the Selhurst Park board as the Eagles sit rock bottom of the Premier League rankings.

The Frenchman's only real saving grace so far is Palace's European campaign, as the Eagles have made a respectable start to the Europa League season, suffering just one defeat from their opening four games.

Sunderland head coach Regis Le Bris, meanwhile, lies third in the list in the 'at risk' section, as does Newcastle United's Matthias Jaissle, who has failed to build on early promise in charge of the Magpies.

Aston Villa's Unai Emery, Chelsea's Xabi Alonso and Fulham's Alvaro Arbeloa also have a minor element of doubt attached to them, but every other head coach in the Premier League is safe from the sack.

Right at the bottom, Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta - who has just signed a new contract - is given a 0% chance of being dismissed, closely followed by Fabian Hurzeler's 3% at Brighton & Hove Albion.