Major League Soccer

Mar 29, 2025 at 11.30pm UK

Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Atlanta
4 - 3
NY City

Miranchuk (42'), Parks (62' og.), Almiron (75'), Latte Lath (84')
Guzan (90+4')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Wolf (15', 51'), Martinez (48' pen.)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's MLS clash between Atlanta United and New York City FC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atlanta United

All competitions

Major League Soccer

Last Game: Cincinnati 2-2 Atlanta
Saturday, March 22 at 6.30pm in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

New York City FC

All competitions

Major League Soccer

Last Game: Columbus Crew 0-0 NY City
Saturday, March 22 at 11.30pm in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atlanta United win with a probability of 46.9%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 29.64% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atlanta United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.03%) and 2-0 (6.97%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 1-2 (7.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.73%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atlanta United would win this match.

Result
Atlanta United	Draw	New York City FC
46.9% ( -0.53)	23.46% ( 0.07)	29.64% ( 0.46)

Both teams to score 60.77% (

0.07)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.33% (

-0.04)

40.67% (

0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.95% (

-0.04)

63.05% (

0.04)

Atlanta United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.39% (

-0.22)

17.61% (

0.22)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.81% (

-0.39)

48.19% (

0.38)

New York City FC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.75% (

0.28)

26.24% (

-0.29)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.65% (

0.38)

61.35% (

-0.38)

Score Analysis

Atlanta United 46.9%

New York City FC 29.64%

Draw 23.45%

Atlanta United	Draw	New York City FC
2-1 @ 9.32% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 8.03% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 6.97% ( -0.09) 3-1 @ 5.4% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 4.04% ( -0.08) 3-2 @ 3.61% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.34% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 1.75% ( -0.05) 4-2 @ 1.57% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.87% Total : 46.9%	1-1 @ 10.73% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 6.24% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 4.62% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.61% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.26% Total : 23.45%	1-2 @ 7.18% ( 0.08) 0-1 @ 6.18% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 4.14% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 3.2% ( 0.06) 2-3 @ 2.78% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 1.84% ( 0.05) 1-4 @ 1.07% ( 0.03) 2-4 @ 0.93% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.32% Total : 29.64%