Nations League
Gameweek
5
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F21%2F12%2Fluxlog.png)
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F21%2F12%2Festlog.png)
-
Omar Natami
61'
-
Jayson Videira Pereira
80'
-
Laurent Jans
90'+5'
-
Maksim Paskotsi
42'
Luxembourg vs Estonia - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
Match Preview
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F09%2Fluxembourg-manager-jeff-strasser-pictured-in-june-2026-sportimage-6ab98c89187bf964532121.jpg)
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luxembourg win with a probability of 42.41%. A win for Estonia had a probability of 32.07% and a draw had a probability of 25.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luxembourg win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.55%) and 2-0 (7.5%). The likeliest Estonia win was 0-1 (8.62%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.7%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood.
Result
Luxembourg
42.41%
▼
(-0.05)
Draw
25.52%
Estonia
32.07%
▲
(+0.04)
Both Teams to Score:
50.2%
▲
(+0.04)
Goals
Over 1.5
73.05%
▲
(+0.02)
Under 1.5
26.95%
▼
(-0.02)
Over 2.5
48.63%
▲
(+0.04)
Under 2.5
51.37%
▼
(-0.04)
Over 3.5
27.05%
▲
(+0.04)
Under 3.5
72.95%
▼
(-0.04)
Over 4.5
15.22%
▲
(+0.03)
Under 4.5
84.78%
▼
(-0.02)
First Half Winner
Luxembourg
33.27%
Draw
41.86%
Estonia
24.87%
Team To Score First
Luxembourg
47.99%
No Goal
7.92%
▼
(-0.01)
Estonia
44.09%
▲
(+0.02)
Corners
Over 8
53.31%
Equal 8
12.03%
Under 8
34.66%
Over 9
41.49%
Equal 9
11.82%
Under 9
46.69%
Over 10.5
30.84%
Under 10.5
69.17%
Luxembourg Goals
Over 1.5
40.17%
▼
(-0.02)
Under 1.5
59.83%
▲
(+0.02)
Over 2.5
17.15%
Under 2.5
82.85%
Over 3.5
5.96%
Under 3.5
94.04%
Estonia Goals
Over 0.5
65.05%
▲
(+0.05)
Under 0.5
34.95%
▼
(-0.05)
Over 1.5
31.88%
▲
(+0.06)
Under 1.5
68.12%
▼
(-0.07)
Over 2.5
12.03%
▲
(+0.04)
Under 2.5
87.97%
▼
(-0.05)
Over 3.5
3.7%
▲
(+0.02)
Under 3.5
96.3%
▼
(-0.02)
Score analysis
Luxembourg
42.41%
Draw
25.53%
Estonia
32.07%
Luxembourg
1-0
@
10.42%
▼
(-0.01)
2-1 @ 8.55% ▼ (-0.01)
2-0 @ 7.5% ▼ (-0.02)
3-1 @ 4.3%
3-0 @ 3.38% ▼ (-0.02)
3-2 @ 2.52%
Other @ 5.74%
Total : 42.41%
2-1 @ 8.55% ▼ (-0.01)
2-0 @ 7.5% ▼ (-0.02)
3-1 @ 4.3%
3-0 @ 3.38% ▼ (-0.02)
3-2 @ 2.52%
Other @ 5.74%
Total : 42.41%
Draw
1-1
@
11.7%
0-0 @ 7.92% ▼ (-0.01)
2-2 @ 4.7% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 0.22%
Total : 25.53%
0-0 @ 7.92% ▼ (-0.01)
2-2 @ 4.7% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 0.22%
Total : 25.53%
Estonia
0-1
@
8.62%
1-2 @ 7.42%
0-2 @ 5.21% ▲ (+0.01)
1-3 @ 2.84% ▲ (+0.01)
2-3 @ 2.27%
0-3 @ 2.23% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 3.48% ▲ (+0.01)
Total : 32.07%
1-2 @ 7.42%
0-2 @ 5.21% ▲ (+0.01)
1-3 @ 2.84% ▲ (+0.01)
2-3 @ 2.27%
0-3 @ 2.23% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 3.48% ▲ (+0.01)
Total : 32.07%
Head to Head
Nations League
Gameweek
3
-
Rasmus Peetson
5'
-
Jurgen Henn
43'
-
Märten Kuusk
73'
-
Karol Mets
82'
-
Markus Poom
88'
-
Enes Mahmutovic
29'
-
Omar Natami
68'
-
Vahid Selimovic
78'
-
Leandro Barreiro
84'
-
Eldin Dzogovic
85'
-
Vincent Thill
85'
-
Mathias Olesen
87'
International Friendlies