Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toulouse win with a probability of 49.16%. A win for Auxerre had a probability of 26.15% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toulouse win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.5%) and 2-0 (8.53%). The likeliest Auxerre win was 0-1 (7.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.71%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toulouse would win this match.