Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 49.46%. A win for Monaco had a probability of 27.62% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.95%) and 2-0 (7.24%). The likeliest Monaco win was 1-2 (6.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.