Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 43%. A win for Monaco had a probability of 31.71% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.99%) and 2-0 (7.17%). The likeliest Monaco win was 0-1 (7.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.96%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.