Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monaco win with a probability of 43.47%. A win for Nice had a probability of 33.31% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monaco win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.96%) and 2-0 (6%). The likeliest Nice win was 1-2 (7.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Monaco in this match.