Liga MX Gameweek 7
Sep 5, 2026 2.00am
Estadio Cuauhtémoc

Puebla vs Toluca - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Puebla

All competitions
Last game
Aug 30, 2026 2.05am
America 2 - 0 Puebla
Goals scored
9
Top scorer
Eduardo Mustre Torres

Toluca

All competitions
Last game
Aug 31, 2026 1.00am
Toluca 4 - 0 Juarez
Goals scored
12
Top scorer
Helinho

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Toluca win with a probability of 54.7%. A draw has a probability of 24.2% and a win for Puebla has a probability of 21.07%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win is 0-1 with a probability of 11.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (9.84%) and 0-2 (9.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (11.11%) , while for a Puebla win it is 1-0 (6.76%).

Result

Puebla 21.07% (-0.13)
Draw 24.2% (-0.45)
Toluca 54.7% (+0.55)

Both Teams to Score: 

50.94% (+1.00)

Goals

Over 1.5 74.31% (+1.15)
Under 1.5 25.69% (-1.14)
Over 2.5 50.29% (+1.29)
Under 2.5 49.71% (-1.29)
Over 3.5 28.31% (+0.96)
Under 3.5 71.69% (-0.97)
Over 4.5 16.33% (+0.61)
Under 4.5 83.67% (-0.61)

First Half Winner

Puebla 18.29% (-0.02)
Draw 42.66% (+0.07)
Toluca 39.06% (-0.05)

Team To Score First

Puebla 31.12% (+0.20)
No Goal 7.41% (-0.52)
Toluca 61.47% (+0.33)

Corners

Over 8 61.09% (+0.08)
Equal 8 10.88%
Under 8 28.03% (-0.08)
Over 9 49.72% (+0.07)
Equal 9 11.37% (+0.01)
Under 9 38.91% (-0.08)
Over 10.5 38.8% (+0.05)
Under 10.5 61.2% (-0.05)

Puebla Goals

Over 1.5 23.11% (+0.49)
Under 1.5 76.89% (-0.49)
Over 2.5 6.73% (+0.27)
Under 2.5 93.27% (-0.27)
Over 3.5 1.63% (+0.08)
Under 3.5 98.37% (-0.08)

Toluca Goals

Over 0.5 79.99% (+0.83)
Under 0.5 20.01% (-0.83)
Over 1.5 50.34% (+1.13)
Under 1.5 49.66% (-1.13)
Over 2.5 24.64% (+0.72)
Under 2.5 75.36% (-0.71)
Over 3.5 9.35% (+0.30)
Under 3.5 90.65% (-0.30)

Score analysis

Puebla 21.07%
Draw 24.2%
Toluca 54.71%
Puebla
1-0 @ 6.76% (-0.33)
2-1 @ 5.29% (+0.06)
2-0 @ 3.23% (-0.09)
3-1 @ 1.75% (+0.07)
3-2 @ 1.45% (+0.08)
3-0 @ 1.04%
Other @ 1.55% (+0.09)
Total : 21.07%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.11% (-0.09)
0-0 @ 7.41% (-0.52)
2-2 @ 4.74% (+0.15)
Other @ 0.08%
Total : 24.2%
Toluca
0-1 @ 11.5% (-0.33)
1-2 @ 9.84% (+0.17)
0-2 @ 9.67% (+0.03)
0-3 @ 5.82% (+0.11)
1-3 @ 5.49% (+0.17)
2-3 @ 3.12% (+0.12)
Other @ 9.27% (+0.30)
Total : 54.71%

Head to Head

Liga MX
Jan 31, 2026 1.00am
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Cuauhtémoc
  • Kevin Velasco 46' yellowcard
  • Colin Kazim-Richards 46' yellowcard
  • Alonso Ramírez Jiménez 46' yellowcard
  • Alonso Ramírez 46' yellowcard
  • Jose Rodrigo Pachuca Martinez 69' yellowcard
  • José Pachuca 69' yellowcard
  • Jose Rodrigo Pachuca Martinez 70' yellowcard
  • Miguel Ramirez Perez 78' yellowcard
  • Bryan Garnica 78' yellowcard
  • 78' yellowcard
  • 78' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Sebastian Cordova 45'+4'
  • yellowcard Sebastián Córdova 45'+4'
  • yellowcard Franco Andres Rossi Donazar 61'
  • yellowcard Franco Rossi 61'
  • yellowcard 76'
  • yellowcard 76'
  • yellowcard Pavel Perez 80'
  • yellowcard Everardo Lopez 80'
  • yellowcard Jorge Roberto Díaz Price 83'
  • yellowcard Jorge Díaz 83'
Liga MX
Sep 14, 2025 4.00am
3
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Liga MX Gameweek 12
Mar 15, 2025 3.05am
0
3
HT : 0 1
FT Estadio Cuauhtemoc
  • Luis Quinones 33' yellowcard
  • Juan Fedorco 87' yellowcard
  • Franco Moyano 90'+1' yellowcard
  • goal Jesus Gallardo 15'
  • goal Paulinho 57'
  • goal Alexis Vega 62'
  • yellowcard Franco Romero 68'
Liga MX Gameweek 13
Oct 23, 2024 4.05am
5
0
HT : 4 0
FT Estadio Nemesio Diez
  • Federico Pereira 15' goal
  • Federico Pereira 15' goal
  • Luan Garcia 29' yellowcard
  • Luan Garcia 29' yellowcard
  • Isaias Violante 37' goal
  • Isaias Violante 37' goal
  • Federico Pereira 45' yellowcard
  • Federico Pereira 45' yellowcard
  • Alexis Vega 52' goal
  • Alexis Vega 52' goal
  • Paulinho 56' goal
  • Paulinho 56' goal
  • Paulinho 90'+4' goal
  • Paulinho 90'+4' goal
Liga MX Gameweek 3
Jan 27, 2024 1.00am
1
1
HT : 2 2
FT Estadio Cuauhtemoc
  • Fernando Navarro 23' goal
  • Fernando Navarro 23' goal
  • Miguel Sansores 41' yellowcard
  • Miguel Sansores 41' yellowcard
  • Diego de Buen 54' yellowcard
  • Diego de Buen 54' yellowcard
  • Kevin Velasco 62' yellowcard
  • Kevin Velasco 62' yellowcard
  • goal Robert Morales 45'+3'
  • goal Robert Morales 45'+3'
  • yellowcard Claudio Baeza 56'
  • yellowcard Claudio Baeza 56'
  • yellowcard Marcel Ruiz 63'
  • yellowcard Marcel Ruiz 63'
  • yellowcard Federico Pereira 73'
  • yellowcard Federico Pereira 74'
Liga MX Gameweek 15
Nov 1, 2023 1.00am
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Nemesio Diez
  • Maximiliano Araujo 31' yellowcard
  • Maximiliano Araujo 31' yellowcard
  • Claudio Baeza 75' yellowcard
  • Marcel Ruiz 76' yellowcard
  • Marcel Ruiz 76' yellowcard
  • Claudio Baeza 76' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Diego de Buen 45'
  • yellowcard Diego de Buen 45'
  • goal Guillermo Martinez 78'
  • goal Guillermo Martinez 78'
  • yellowcard Carlos Baltazar 89'
  • yellowcard Carlos Baltazar 89'