Liga MX Gameweek 8
Sep 13, 2026 12.00am
Estadio Nemesio Díez

Toluca vs Atlas - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Toluca

All competitions
Last game
Aug 31, 2026 1.00am
Toluca 4 - 0 Juarez
Goals scored
12
Top scorer
Helinho

Atlas

All competitions
Last game
Sep 6, 2026 4.00am
Atlas 1 - 1 Atlante
Goals scored
10
Top scorer
Édgar Zaldívar

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Toluca win with a probability of 63.78%. A draw has a probability of 21.02% and a win for Atlas has a probability of 15.17%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win is 2-1 with a probability of 10.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (10.03%) and 1-0 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (9.59%) , while for a Atlas win it is 1-2 (4.37%).

Result

Toluca 63.78% (-2.93)
Draw 21.02% (+1.38)
Atlas 15.17% (+1.51)

Both Teams to Score: 

54.01% (+1.20)

Goals

Over 1.5 81.56% (-0.41)
Under 1.5 18.44% (+0.42)
Over 2.5 60.12% (-0.68)
Under 2.5 39.88% (+0.68)
Over 3.5 37.18% (-0.94)
Under 3.5 62.82% (+0.94)
Over 4.5 24.25% (-1.29)
Under 4.5 75.75% (+1.30)

First Half Winner

Toluca 48.84% (-0.70)
Draw 37.83% (-0.31)
Atlas 13.33% (+1.00)

Team To Score First

Toluca 68.34% (-1.96)
No Goal 4.68% (+0.18)
Atlas 26.98% (+1.79)

Corners

Over 8 62.26% (+2.11)
Equal 8 10.73% (-0.30)
Under 8 27.01% (-1.80)
Over 9 50.94% (+2.22)
Equal 9 11.32% (-0.12)
Under 9 37.74% (-2.11)
Over 10.5 39.97% (+2.15)
Under 10.5 60.03% (-2.15)

Toluca Goals

Over 1.5 62.31% (-1.99)
Under 1.5 37.69% (+1.99)
Over 2.5 35.23% (-2.43)
Under 2.5 64.77% (+2.43)
Over 3.5 17.02% (-1.86)
Under 3.5 82.98% (+1.86)

Atlas Goals

Over 0.5 51.65% (+2.72)
Under 0.5 48.35% (-2.72)
Over 1.5 21.08% (+1.98)
Under 1.5 78.92% (-1.99)
Over 2.5 6.66% (+0.96)
Under 2.5 93.34% (-0.96)
Over 3.5 1.71% (+0.32)
Under 3.5 98.29% (-0.31)

Score analysis

Toluca 63.78%
Draw 21.03%
Atlas 15.16%
Toluca
2-1 @ 10.46% (+0.22)
2-0 @ 10.03% (-0.40)
1-0 @ 9.74% (-0.05)
3-0 @ 7.26% (-0.53)
3-1 @ 6.53% (-0.24)
3-2 @ 3.15% (+0.05)
Other @ 16.61% (-1.97)
Total : 63.78%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.59% (+0.51)
2-2 @ 5.08% (+0.46)
0-0 @ 4.68% (+0.18)
3-3 @ 1.27% (+0.15)
Other @ 0.41% (+0.10)
Total : 21.03%
Atlas
1-2 @ 4.37% (+0.40)
0-1 @ 3.99% (+0.27)
0-2 @ 1.82% (+0.16)
2-3 @ 1.51% (+0.17)
1-3 @ 1.34% (+0.17)
Other @ 1.3% (+0.21)
Total : 15.16%

Head to Head

Liga MX Gameweek 11
Mar 15, 2026 1.00am
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Nemesio Díez
  • Paulinho 59' yellowcard
  • Helinho 59' yellowcard
  • Nicolás Castro 65' yellowcard
  • Jesús Angulo 65' yellowcard
  • Diego Barbosa 85' yellowcard
  • Jesús Angulo 90'+2' goal
  • yellowcard Víctor Ríos 46'
  • yellowcard Luis Gamboa 79'
  • yellowcard Eduardo Aguirre 89'
  • goal Víctor Ríos 90'+4'
Liga MX
Nov 1, 2025 11.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Liga MX Gameweek 15
Apr 13, 2025 2.05am
2
3
HT : 4 4
FT Estadio Jalisco
  • Aldo Rocha 23' yellowcard
  • Aldo Rocha 23' yellowcard
  • Doria 24' yellowcard
  • Doria 24' yellowcard
  • Eduardo Aguirre 30' goal
  • Eduardo Aguirre 30' goal
  • Eduardo Aguirre 45'+1' goal
  • Eduardo Aguirre 45'+1' goal
  • Diego Luis Gonzalez Alcaraz 45'+3' yellowcard
  • Diego Luis Gonzalez Alcaraz 45'+3' yellowcard
  • Hugo Nervo 55' yellowcard
  • Hugo Nervo 55' yellowcard
  • Gaddi Aguirre 90'+7' yellowcard
  • Gaddi Aguirre 90'+7' yellowcard
  • goal Paulinho 15'
  • goal Paulinho 15'
  • goal Paulinho 24'
  • goal Paulinho 24'
  • yellowcard Bruno Mendez 29'
  • yellowcard Bruno Mendez 29'
  • yellowcard Jesus Angulo 39'
  • yellowcard Jesus Angulo 39'
  • yellowcard Paulinho 40'
  • yellowcard Paulinho 40'
  • goal Paulinho 77'
  • goal Paulinho 77'
Liga MX Gameweek 10
Sep 29, 2024 12.00am
4
1
HT : 4 0
FT Estadio Nemesio Diez
  • Paulinho 33' goal
  • Paulinho 33' goal
  • Helinho 40' goal
  • Helinho 40' goal
  • Isaias Violante 54' goal
  • Isaias Violante 54' goal
  • Isaias Violante 61' goal
  • Isaias Violante 61' goal
  • Brian Garcia 62' yellowcard
  • Brian Garcia 62' yellowcard
  • Paulinho 84' yellowcard
  • Paulinho 84' yellowcard
  • goal Aldo Rocha 78'
  • goal Aldo Rocha 78'
  • yellowcard Hugo Nervo 90'+3'
  • yellowcard Hugo Nervo 90'+3'
  • redcard Uros Durdevic 90'+9'
Liga MX Gameweek 14
Apr 7, 2024 7.00pm
4
1
HT : 2 0
FT Estadio Nemesio Diez
  • Federico Pereira 5' goal
  • Alexis Vega 35' goal
  • Jesus Angulo 67' goal
  • Juan Zapata 90'+2' yellowcard
  • Edgar Lopez 90'+3' goal
  • yellowcard Angel Marquez 45'+3'
  • yellowcard Jhon Murillo 77'
  • yellowcard Jhon Murillo 85'
  • goal Jose Lozano 87'
Liga MX Gameweek 6
Aug 27, 2023 12.00am
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Jalisco
  • Aldo Rocha 27' yellowcard
  • Aldo Rocha 27' yellowcard
  • Brian Lozano 59' yellowcard
  • Brian Lozano 60' yellowcard
  • Juan Zapata 90'+2' yellowcard
  • Juan Zapata 90'+2' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Adrian Mora 45'+7'
  • yellowcard Adrian Mora 45'+8'