Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lech Poznan win with a probability of 47.42%. A win for Stal Mielec had a probability of 27.28% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lech Poznan win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.33%) and 0-2 (8.38%). The likeliest Stal Mielec win was 1-0 (7.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.02%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lech Poznan would win this match.