Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rwanda win with a probability of 44.2%. A draw had a probability of 30.3% and a win for Benin had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rwanda win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.43%) and 2-1 (7.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.73%), while for a Benin win it was 0-1 (11.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rwanda would win this match.