Championship Gameweek 35
Middlesbrough
Mar 1, 2025 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Riverside Stadium
Derby
  • Finn Azaz 80' goal
  • Finn Azaz 81' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Tom Barkhuizen 19'
  • yellowcard Craig Forsyth 90'+4'

Middlesbrough vs Derby County - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Middlesbrough

All competitions
Last game
Feb 25, 2025 7.45pm
Stoke 1 - 3 Middlesbrough
Goals scored
64
Top scorer
Tommy Conway

Derby County

All competitions
Last game
Feb 22, 2025 12.30pm
Derby 0 - 1 Millwall
Goals scored
48
Top scorer
Jerry Yates

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 55.26%. A draw has a probability of 24.5% and a win for Derby County has a probability of 20.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win is 1-0 with a probability of 13.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (10.75%) and 2-1 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (11.6%), while for a Derby County win it is 0-1 (7.05%).

Result

Middlesbrough 55.26% ▼ (-1.04)
Draw 24.54% ▲ (+0.36)
Derby County 20.2% ▲ (+0.69)

Both Teams to Score: 

47.45% ▲ (+0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5 46.43% ▼ (-0.53)
Under 2.5 53.57% ▲ (+0.53)
Over 3.5 24.92% ▼ (-0.45)
Under 3.5 75.08% ▲ (+0.45)
Over 4.5 11.31% ▼ (-0.29)
Under 4.5 88.69% ▲ (+0.29)

Middlesbrough Goals

Over 0.5 80.7% ▼ (-0.60)
Under 0.5 19.3% ▲ (+0.60)
Over 1.5 48.94% ▼ (-1.00)
Under 1.5 51.05% ▲ (+1.00)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5 58.8% ▲ (+0.45)
Under 0.5 41.2% ▼ (-0.45)
Over 1.5 22.27% ▲ (+0.40)
Under 1.5 77.73% ▼ (-0.39)

Score analysis

Middlesbrough 55.25%
Draw 24.54%
Derby County 20.2%
Middlesbrough
1-0 @ 13.08% ▲ (+0.03)
2-0 @ 10.75% ▼ (-0.19)
2-1 @ 9.54% ▼ (-0.05)
3-0 @ 5.9% ▼ (-0.22)
3-1 @ 5.23% ▼ (-0.13)
4-0 @ 2.43% ▼ (-0.14)
3-2 @ 2.32% ▼ (-0.03)
4-1 @ 2.15% ▼ (-0.10)
Other @ 3.86%
Total : 55.25%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.6% ▲ (+0.17)
0-0 @ 7.95% ▲ (+0.17)
2-2 @ 4.23% ▲ (+0.04)
Other @ 0.75%
Total : 24.54%
Derby County
0-1 @ 7.05% ▲ (+0.23)
1-2 @ 5.14% ▲ (+0.14)
0-2 @ 3.13% ▲ (+0.14)
1-3 @ 1.52% ▲ (+0.06)
2-3 @ 1.25% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 2.11%
Total : 20.2%

Head to Head

Championship Gameweek 2
Derby
Aug 17, 2024 12.30pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Pride Park Stadium
Middlesbrough
  • Kayden Jackson 14' goal
  • Nathaniel Mendez-Laing 40' yellowcard
  • Callum Elder 67' yellowcard
  • Kayden Jackson 90'+2' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Emmanuel Latte Lath 42'
Championship Gameweek 32
Middlesbrough
Feb 12, 2022 3.00pm
4
1
HT : 3 1
FT
Derby
  • Lee Buchanan 15' goal
  • Marcus Tavernier 27' yellowcard
  • Matt Crooks 31' yellowcard
  • Aaron Connolly 44' goal
  • Matt Crooks 45'+3' goal
  • Jonny Howson 50' yellowcard
  • Duncan Watmore 89' goal
  • yellowcard Tom Lawrence 27'
  • goal Max Bird 39'
  • yellowcard Malcolm Ebiowei 87'
  • yellowcard 88'
Championship Gameweek 4
Derby
Aug 21, 2021 3.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Middlesbrough
  • Phil Jagielka 66' yellowcard
  • Nathan Byrne 90'+1' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Lee Peltier 30'
  • yellowcard Marcus Tavernier 43'
  • yellowcard Marc Bola 54'
  • yellowcard Isaiah Jones 85'
Championship Gameweek 29
Derby
Feb 13, 2021 3.00pm
2
1
HT : 2 1
FT Pride Park Stadium
Middlesbrough
  • Lee Gregory 15' goal
  • Colin Kazim-Richards 32' goal
  • Kamil Jozwiak 35' yellowcard
  • Jason Knight 90'+4' yellowcard
  • goal Neeskens Kebano 38'
  • yellowcard Anfernee Dijksteel 62'
Championship Gameweek 13
Middlesbrough
Nov 25, 2020 7.00pm
3
0
HT : 1 0
FT Riverside Stadium
Derby
  • Britt Assombalonga 33' goal
  • Matt Clarke 71' goal
  • Marvin Johnson 83' goal
  • yellowcard Kamil Jozwiak 9'
  • yellowcard Tom Lawrence 49'
  • yellowcard Nathan Byrne 53'
  • yellowcard Lee Buchanan 65'
Championship Gameweek 27
Middlesbrough
Jan 11, 2020 3.00pm
2
2
HT : 1 0
FT
Derby
  • Lewis Wing 16' goal
  • Paddy McNair 67' goal
  • Hayden Coulson 79' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Matt Clarke 39'
  • yellowcard Martyn Waghorn 44'
  • goal Jason Knight 54'
  • goal Duane Holmes 91'

Form Data

Stoke 1 - 3 Middlesbrough
Bristol City 2 - 1 Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough 0 - 1 Watford
Sheff Utd 3 - 1 Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough 2 - 3 Sunderland
Preston 2 - 1 Middlesbrough
Derby 0 - 1 Millwall
QPR 4 - 0 Derby
Derby 0 - 0 Oxford Utd
Norwich 1 - 1 Derby
Derby 0 - 1 Sheff Utd
Cardiff 2 - 1 Derby