/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F21%2F12%2Fitalog.png)
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F21%2F12%2Fisrlog.png)
-
Mateo Retegui
41'
-
Giovanni Di Lorenzo
54'
-
Andrea Cambiaso
66'
-
Davide Frattesi
72'
-
Giovanni Di Lorenzo
79'
-
Mohammad Abu Fani
66'
Italy vs Israel - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
Match Preview
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F24%2F29%2Friccardo-calafiori.jpg)
Predicted Lineups
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F24%2F36%2Fluciano-spalletti.jpg)
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 63.01%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Israel had a probability of 16.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.65%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.8%), while for a Israel win it was 0-1 (4.84%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Italy would win this match.
Result
Italy
63.01%
▲
(+0.14)
Draw
20.69%
▲
(+0.06)
Israel
16.3%
▼
(-0.20)
Both Teams to Score:
52.2%
▼
(-0.64)
Goals
Over 2.5
56.42%
▼
(-0.63)
Under 2.5
43.58%
▲
(+0.63)
Over 3.5
34.03%
▼
(-0.62)
Under 3.5
65.97%
▲
(+0.62)
Over 4.5
17.55%
▼
(-0.46)
Under 4.5
82.45%
▲
(+0.46)
Italy Goals
Over 0.5
86.79%
▼
(-0.16)
Under 0.5
13.21%
▲
(+0.16)
Over 1.5
60.06%
▼
(-0.32)
Under 1.5
39.94%
▲
(+0.32)
Israel Goals
Over 0.5
60.14%
▼
(-0.63)
Under 0.5
39.86%
▲
(+0.63)
Over 1.5
23.48%
▼
(-0.58)
Under 1.5
76.52%
▲
(+0.58)
Score analysis
Italy
63%
Draw
20.69%
Israel
16.3%
Italy
2-0
@
10.78%
▲
(+0.17)
1-0 @ 10.65% ▲ (+0.24)
2-1 @ 9.92% ▼ (-0.02)
3-0 @ 7.28% ▲ (+0.08)
3-1 @ 6.7% ▼ (-0.05)
4-0 @ 3.68% ▲ (+0.02)
4-1 @ 3.39% ▼ (-0.05)
3-2 @ 3.08% ▼ (-0.08)
4-2 @ 1.56% ▼ (-0.05)
5-0 @ 1.49% ▼ (-0.01)
5-1 @ 1.37% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 3.1%
Total : 63%
1-0 @ 10.65% ▲ (+0.24)
2-1 @ 9.92% ▼ (-0.02)
3-0 @ 7.28% ▲ (+0.08)
3-1 @ 6.7% ▼ (-0.05)
4-0 @ 3.68% ▲ (+0.02)
4-1 @ 3.39% ▼ (-0.05)
3-2 @ 3.08% ▼ (-0.08)
4-2 @ 1.56% ▼ (-0.05)
5-0 @ 1.49% ▼ (-0.01)
5-1 @ 1.37% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 3.1%
Total : 63%
Draw
1-1
@
9.8%
▲
(+0.05)
0-0 @ 5.26% ▲ (+0.15)
2-2 @ 4.56% ▼ (-0.09)
Other @ 1.06%
Total : 20.69%
0-0 @ 5.26% ▲ (+0.15)
2-2 @ 4.56% ▼ (-0.09)
Other @ 1.06%
Total : 20.69%
Israel
0-1
@
4.84%
▲
(+0.06)
1-2 @ 4.51% ▼ (-0.06)
0-2 @ 2.23% ▼ (-0.02)
2-3 @ 1.4% ▼ (-0.06)
1-3 @ 1.38% ▼ (-0.05)
Other @ 1.94%
Total : 16.3%
1-2 @ 4.51% ▼ (-0.06)
0-2 @ 2.23% ▼ (-0.02)
2-3 @ 1.4% ▼ (-0.06)
1-3 @ 1.38% ▼ (-0.05)
Other @ 1.94%
Total : 16.3%