Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 38.92%. A win for Go Ahead Eagles had a probability of 37.23% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.07%) and 0-2 (5.55%). The likeliest Go Ahead Eagles win was 2-1 (8.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.82%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.