Croatia vs Italy - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 37.74%. A win for Croatia had a probability of 36.78% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.38%) and 0-2 (6.12%). The likeliest Croatia win was 1-0 (8.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.