Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sierra Leone win with a probability of 38.84%. A win for Chad had a probability of 31.59% and a draw had a probability of 29.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sierra Leone win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.67%) and 1-2 (7.63%). The likeliest Chad win was 1-0 (11.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood.