Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 41.93%. A win for Boavista had a probability of 30.51% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.49%) and 0-2 (7.91%). The likeliest Boavista win was 1-0 (9.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.