Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 77.37%. A draw had a probability of 14.7% and a win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 7.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.85%) and 1-0 (10.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.99%), while for a Gil Vicente win it was 0-1 (2.77%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.