Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 58.13%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 22.01% and a draw had a probability of 19.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.04%) and 2-0 (6.99%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 1-2 (5.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.3%). The actual scoreline of 4-5 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.