Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Notts County win with a probability of 65.83%. A draw had a probability of 18.97% and a win for Newport County had a probability of 15.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Notts County win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.75%) and 1-0 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.58%) , while for a Newport County win it was 1-2 (4.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.